Talk:SE.RA.PH/@comment-27475362-20170519203143/@comment-31096423-20170520014258

Chances to get a 3 star servant: 40%

Chances to get a 4 star servant: 3%

Chances to get a 5 star servant: 1%

Chances to get a 3 star Craft Essence: 40%

Chances to get a 4 star Craft Essence: 12%

Chances to get a 5 star Craft Essence: 4%

Actual chance to get an almost guaranteed 5 star servant: 500 rolls x 3SQ per roll = 1500SQ required (Around 99% chance to get the 5 star after 500 rolls, not a guaranteed chance, this is a normal distribution)

Amount of SQ you used: 60

Chances to get a 5 star servant after using 60 SQ > 60 / 3 = 20 draws, 0.99^20 = 0,817 > 81,7% chance of failing to get a 5 star servant > 18,3% chance to get a 5 star servant after 20 rolls.

Chances to get a 4 star servant after using 60 SQ > 60 / 3 = 20 draws, 0.97^20 = 0,5438 > 54,38% chance of failing to get a 4 star servant > 45,62% chance to get a 4 star servant after 20 rolls.

I'd say what just happened to you is pretty normal and almost everyone falls under your category. Look at me on the other hand, I've used above 500 SQ in this event and I haven't obtained a single 4 or 5 star servant... And then there's other people getting 2 copies of the SSR with 60 SQ, I'd say those are the abnormal ones.