Talk:Christmas 2016 Event/@comment-34432542-20181110110001/@comment-34041338-20181114001503

"You can't estimate that."

It's simple statistics to tell you how likely you are to get her, but all that will be is just an estimation. The other wiki has a chart for this.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10tNj7KzDf2dG28s62aKUsEnfTigdYadwh7fHcBUbm70/edit#gid=0

With 200 SQ and 45 tickets (effectively an additional 135 SQ), the chance of you not getting her is someodd 46.15%, conversely, this must mean that 53.85% of the time you will get her. You have roughly a coinflip toss to whether she shows up or not if you spend every single one of your SQ and Tickets. You won't know what side of that coin toss you're on until you try though.

So yes, you can perfectly estimate it. In every sense of the word estimate.