Talk:Fate/EXTRA CCC Collaboration Event/@comment-26948189-20170427013134/@comment-28209103-20170427141931

the chance for random event to happen no matter how many times you repeat it are the same.. at least mathematically. It's well known basic knowledge for a gambler.

I'm not math savvy so I can't point each and every mistake however the fundamental part that even I do know is wrong is that probability are independent with the number of experiment. no need to get that complicated, you can use coin tossing as example, the theoritical chance to get a face is 50%, and it'll stay the same no matter how many time you collect the sample. So the chance of getting the "face" in 10 toss are 1/2 x 10 = 5, the chance of getting a face in 45 toss are 1/2 x 45 = 22.5. that's how probabilty works.

There's no such thing as number of your roll influence your chance. The number of roll will simply increase the theoritical sample of success. even if we do like you said I can say with 99% certainty (lol) that your 500th roll are not SSR.

if the official FGO rate can be trusted then theoritically you'll get 1 success sample of SSR every 100 roll, 2 success sample in 200 roll and so on. However this is merely theoritical chance which is why there's ton of number comes out based on self experience.