Talk:Fate/EXTRA CCC Collaboration Event/@comment-26948189-20170427013134/@comment-31096423-20170427190951

Np FGOHikaru, it just really gets to me when people outright deny things I've had to work with to boredom, I'm not all that knowledgeable myself since I left that line of work, but that stuff really stuck to me. As for the reason why one has to use a power equal to the number of attempts over the unsuccess rate, that's something I really can't remember, but if you look for it, you will surely find a demonstration.

Now, in regards to the 100 draws to get 1 SSR, although it is mathematically wrong to assume that, it's what language logic tells us, and that's what companies such as DW and most commonly casinos and gambling places use to squeeze money out of people who don't know left from right in the world of probabilistics and statistics.

Well, now that all of this is out of the way, answering OP's question, the amount of SQ you'll need to almost surely get that chosen SSR is 1.000 / 10 = 100 x 30 = 3.000 SQ or less for an E rank luck player. In terms of money, that's around... 3.000 / 140 = 21,43 =~ 22 140 SQ purchases => 9.800 yen per 140 SQ = 215.600 yen = $1.939,54 or 1.786,03€ by today's exchange rate. And, as always, do keep in mind that this is not a guaranteed roll, but a very likely roll.

To proove this (in a sense), I did 1.000 experiments of 100 rolls each, totaling 100.000 rolls, and out of those experiments (each can be roughly be considered a player), for non-rate up SSR, only 30% (300 out of 1000) managed to get 1 SSR, 10% (100 out of 1000) obtained 2 SSR, 2.5% (25 out of 1000) obtained 3 SSR, 0.5% managed to obtain 4 SSR, and 0,1% (1 out of 1000) obtained 5 SSR. Similar numbers apply to the Rate Up SSR draws. As for the combined rate of both rate up and non rate up SSRs, the numbers change a bit, with 35% of the players getting ONE SSR, 21% getting TWO SSR, 7,5% getting THREE SSR, 2,5% getting FOUR SSR, 0,8% getting FIVE SSR, and 0,1% getting SIX SSR.

Well, there you have it, if you have enough SQ to do 100 draws, you have a 35% chance of getting an SSR, and out of all of the players, only 30% will get the rate up SSR (Only if the rate up is 50% of the SSR pool, that is, which I doubt, lol)