Talk:New Year Campaign 2020/@comment-33980797-20200103103040/@comment-31096423-20200104134126

False, 300SQ will yield you an SSR 2 out of 3 times. 0.99 ^ 110 = 0.331 => 1-0.331 = 0.669 x 100 = 66.9% Explaining the formula, 0.99 = the chance of failure to obtain an SSR on every attempt, SSR drop rate is 1%, meaning, the chance of failure is 99%, and since percentage cannot be used in formulas and you need to use the range from 0 to 1, it becomes 0.99. 110 is the number of pulls you can do with 300 SQ. 300 / 30 = 10 pulls of 11. 10 x 11 = 110 pulls total. 0.331 is the aproximation of 0.99 to the power of 110, which is actually 0,33103308832101416971245031299651 we remove the previous number to 1, since that previous number is the chance fo failure after pulling 110 times in a row, but we want to know the chance of pulling an SSR after those draws. The resulting number is 0.669, which is also an aproximation of the actual number, which is 0,66896691167898583028754968700349 we multiply the previous number for 100 and we obtain the success rate in percentage, which is close to 66.9%

As we all know, 66% is two times 33%, and 33% = 1/3x100, meaning 2/3 times we use 300 SQ we will obtain an SSR.

HOWEVER, hold your horses, this does NOT mean you WILL get 2SSR and fail to get 1 every time you use 300 SQ, what it means is, that in the infinity, you will get an SSR on 66% of the times you use 300SQ, which means you MIGHT go without an SSR for a lot of banners even consecutively, but it's VERY hard to be outside of the normal distribution, that is to say, it's really hard to fail to stay within the 66% success rate on average, so even if it's possible you will go 33 times in a row without an SSR after using 300 SQ every time, the likelyhood of such a thing happening is infinitessimal, it's more likely for you to get several SSR in a single 10 pull, so don't worry too much about it.

Also, just so OP knows, the chance of pulling the rateup SSR servant is slightly lower than the one to pull an SSR (0.8% vs 1%, though it's part of the 1%), and with 450 SQ = 165 total summons, the chance to pull it was 73.4%, conversely, the chance to fail to get it was 26.6$, you were slightly unlucky. Compare to me, I used 1200 SQ to try and pull Yang Guifei and failed, my chance of success was 97.1%, chance of failure was 2.9%.