Talk:Fate/EXTRA CCC Collaboration Event/@comment-26948189-20170427013134/@comment-31096423-20170428100647

Well, the main problem I see with your theory is that you're assuming the rate up to not exist. However, there is a rate up for specific servants, and those are the target servants in my calculation, to be more specific, Meltililith, the SSR is the target servants for this calculation. Still, there is an issue with this, and that comes from the fact DW has not revealed what the rate up is translated to in terms of probability, so I, in all my "naïveté" (because it looks cooler in french ;P), have assumed that the rate up means a 50% rate of the SSR pool, meaning there's a 50% chance to get Meltililith when getting an SSR. From my experience, this has actually been the case, but as expected, the amount of SSRs I have managed to pull isn't that big (20 in total, including dupes), but within those 20, 10 are Limited Servants, and the other 10 are non-limited, and it's important to note I have only used the SQ summon when there was a limited servant gacha, and only within the limited servant gacha (I have never used the story summon).

But well, that 50% on the SSR is, as I said, an assumption I made, but what I believe to actually be true is a double rate up for that specific servant, and that'd look like this: A, A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I. This translates to 10 possible draws, from which 2 are the same (the rate up servant), meaning normal SST have a 10% draw rate while the limited rate up servant has 20% draw rate.

Still, that's a rather pessimistic view, so I calculated the 50% rate instead, which gave me the 1.000 draws to get the rate up SSR.

I hope that provides you with enough information to know that what you calculated was a non-rate up chance of pulling your desired SSR servant.