Talk:A Study in the Dubious Meiho-sou/@comment-32856683-20190518133116

Okay, fellow detectives. So that's what I've got:

Daizo Oka's fate seems to be important. He is a master assassin who kills to care for his sister, but disappeared after the war. Since he doesn't seem to have any personal vengeance against anyone in the story, it is possible that while he certainly is among the characters in disguise, he isn't the culprit. It might be possible that some shadowy government figure has hired him to kill Gabriela and bury Cortes' blackmail, I personally find it very likely that it is a red herring and instead we've got a more personal motive. I mean... what third-rate detective story would it be if some unknown third party is pulling the strings in the end? Nope... we have to find out who the target of the murder attempt was and why.

I think the trick is by finding out who both Oka and his sister are. For the sister only Elis, Gabriele and Adriana are possibilities, I guess. Though Mashu has been chronically underused and barely interacted with anyone, so maybe I can scratch her. If Gabriele is the sister, we can be certain that Oka wouldn't try to assassinate her on purpose except if he's Salazar and has lost his memories or targeted someone else with the poison in the first place (if a switch-up took place, then he obviously tried to murder one of the men at the last table, which means... damn, there was only Antonio! Antonio might have been the actual target!). Elis... well, Antonio denies that she has a sibling, but given how long she is on stage and how she isn't treated as poor while Ito mentioned having to find food for her... It seems like everything is pointing at Gabriele there.

Okay... under the assumption that Gabriele is the sister, we can ascertain that she either has been hit by accident... or, what I personally find more likely, was targeted specifically to draw her brother out of hiding. In any case, let's turn the chessboard around and see what each character would have to gain.

The hidden prince duo: Almost certainly not the killers. They have no personal vendetta against a loyalist's sister and all the other guests seem unrelated to them as well. What makes me think: Why the hell are they even there in the first place? They might have tried to get the blackmail, but when Roma exposited that part, they seemed oblivious to it existing (and if they lied, why would they ruin their chances by committing a murder?). It is of course possible, if Cortes has faked his death and used his funeral to draw enemies out of hiding, that they have been invited for that purpose... In that case, it is more likely they have been the intended victims rather than being murderers.

Antonio: Despite being the former court musician, the other royalists don't seem to be recognizing him. Is he Oka? If yes, his only goal would be reuniting with his sister. There is a lot pointing at him not being who he claims he is and so far there has been not payoff for that. Curious. Aside Elis trying to meet her former friend (I think), I have no other possibility for his identity.

Roma: It is interesting that he is apparently searching for Oka, given his attempt at guessing that Elis is his sister. His motives for that are pretty unclear to me as of now. It is unlikely he is Ito, given that he wouldn't have bothered asking Elis that question if that was the case. So maybe he is another person hired by Cortes to find Oka among the guest after the seeming attempt on the life of his sister. Or he is some kind of ally... But with him as well I see no possible connection that makes him a candidate as a murderer.

Isidoro and Adriana: Well, they already have been exposed as detectives hired by Cortes, probably to expose his enemies among the guests.

Salazar: Curious, curious. Of course he is the obvious choice for being Oka, but I have already explored how I find that to be a lacking resolution. But what other character could he be? Oh... there is one prologue character that was actually last seen being struck down by Cortes. And that was General Tan... Hasn't someone already mentioned that we weren't supposed to take how the characters look at face-value? But Elis appreciating his looks still is unlikely when Cortes previously adressed him as an old man. He is more acting like an assassin though, especially his comment about taking care of insolent guests.