Talk:Fate/EXTRA CCC Collaboration Event/@comment-26948189-20170427013134/@comment-31096423-20170427151947

You're assuming I said that the ACTUAL chance of the appearence rate is 99% or whatever I calculated, and that's WRONG, your reading comprehension seems to be bad, so please do re-read my comment if you need to, but what I said is:

0,99 chances of failing multiplied by 0,99 chances of failing on the next attempt (since the actual rate does not change)

I wrote this in a simple manner so as to not confuse people, and yet you managed to confuse yourself assuming that I said the actual rate changes, it does NOT, and I did NOT say such a thing.

This is called a continuus attempt calculation and it's the real deal, it does NOT mean the actual rate changes, but that WITHIN A SERIES, the chance of failing obtaining a certain result will get further away by the power of the failure rate. This is a law of probabilistics, and putting it in another way, it's how a gauss curve works, the further away you get from the expected result, the further away the chance to get away from the expected result gets. Putting it in layman's terms, the longer you attempt to fail at something, the harder it gets to fail at it.

This is not a gambler's whatever thing, this is pure probabilistics, and it's a method used to calculate errors within calculations, a series of tests, or whatever that uses numbers to proove a hypothesys. Using it within gambling is not wrong per se, trusting in it is, however, stupid, because, as I said at the end of my previous post, one could keep trying for all eternity and still not get the desired result, and conversely, one could try and get the desired result all the time, however that is indeed hard to accomplish.