Talk:Moon Goddess Event/@comment-68.187.38.101-20170818032031/@comment-31096423-20170818133604

The drop rates for the CE are as follows, based on the data gathered by a bunch of poeople:

5AP = 0,5%

10 AP = 0,8%

20 AP = 1,6%

30 AP = 1,4%

40 AP = 14,3%

It's important to note that the more expensive in terms of AP the quest is, the less reliable the information becomes (less runs = decreased caluclation precision). This means that the first rate is rather accurate, whilst the last is... well, not accurate at all (lol, 14,5%).

I recomend farming the 5 AP quest, since it'l allow you to get the required dango first, which will in turn help you farm more dangos to buy more CEs. Right now, you'll only be able to farm a grand total of 2745 normal dangos and 4360 rare dangos, making the total of 4925 dangos (rare dango x2 = normal dango x1). Roughly, these are 323 runs starting now. The chances you have of obtaining at least 1 CE drop by doing 323 times the 5 AP quest are of 80,19%, conversely, you have 19,81% chances of failing to obtain the CE after all these runs. Using apples will increase the probability of success. (btw, this rate is representative of the majority of players, some players will still fall short on obtaining the CE even after 2000 runs, no hard feelings if you don't get one).

If you want to take a look at how the rates are going, take a look at this spreadsheet, it was linked before, but the comments swallowed it up: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oWPi07G_8yJv57lOE2LLGYMGv30yHTZjeRgTAUkxmXc/htmlview?sle=true#