Talk:Christmas 2016 Event/@comment-34432542-20181110110001/@comment-34041338-20181115005820

Of course I can say "perfectly estimate it" after spending X amount. Those chances I posted? That means that 46 people out of a 100 won't get their 5* if they spend 335 SQ, conversely, 54 people out of a 100 will get that 5*. Your anecdotal accounts are perfectly within estimates. Spending 845 lands you a 13.99~% chance of failure. That means out of a 100 people who spend 845 SQ, 14ish will fail. You were a part of that 14.

I don't get what you guys are getting hung up on. It should be blatantly obvious that more SQ = higher chance of getting your waifu right? You understand that much right? The number I'm giving you is that quantifiable view of how the chance of getting your waifu is increasing as you use more. That's all it is though, a better chance at your waifu popping up, and since we're digitally gambling, you really shouldn't be surprised if your gamble fails until you start getting into the .0001%> chances of failure.

It should be clarified though, don't get this confused with gambler's fallacy. All this calculates is how likely it is for you to fail that many times in a row. You might get her in the first roll, you might get her at the last, the chance for each individual roll remains the same, it's the overall probablility of failing that many times in a row that's being caclculated.